Population Shifts

Basic Aspects of the Issue

As Rounds and Shamenski point out (see below) it was the agricultural restructuring which resulted in the shift of population from rural areas to the urban centers. Service centers shifted in the number and type of services provided in a thirty-year shakeout which is still underway.

Tweeten in his book Fundamentaly of Agricultural Policy deals with the fundamental drivers behind the agricultural restructuring which set off this domino effect. He claims it was all the result of a decision we made as a North-American society to educate the population and support both higher education and research in a big way. This in turn resulted in an agricultural explosion of new technologies which had two major effects:

1. It meant that purchased inputs had a far greater impact on profits for the farmer than land and labor,
2. It drove up productivity which in turn resulted in an oversupply of about 10% of needed product, driving prices paid for produce down.

The shortage of money to pay for redundant labor and the greater returns for outside inputs, resulted in a North American exodus from farms to cities. Support workers from the towns soon followed.

The shifts of population in Western Manitoba are the direct cause of the other aspects of rural restructuring taking place in other prairie institutions. The population shifts in turn were driven by agricultural restructuring. Knowing how these dynamics play out in any given district can help people to make wiser choices in both expectations and actions in the area of rural development. Understanding population shifts informs strategic thinking.

Rural Development Institute Research Studies

• "An Analysis of the Population of Agro-Manitoba" -Richard Rounds
  This study is a snapshot of our Western area of Manitoba so we can plan for stability, growth or decline as the case may be. An excellent profile.

• "Economic Development and Immigrant Employment and Opportunities in Rural Manitoba" -Jack Lam, C. Emdad Haque and Carol West This study deals with the rural retention of immigrants and the reduction of urban flight after arrival. The study is based on a survey and interviews with key leaders in rural communities. It is designed to look at job availability and assimilation support services (both of which seem to be lacking).

• "The Internal and Functional Restructuring of Rural Communities in Agro-Manitoba" -Richard Rounds and Kevin Shamenski
  Rural agricultural restructuring resulted in a depopulation of the farms and subsequently the small service centers. Better roads resulted in larger trade areas. A shakeout occurred over the past 30 years in Manitoba.

  The key to this study is its analysis of the types of services that are provided in each of 41 Manitoba centers. Using cluster analysis, the towns were computer-analyzed to group them into types of service center by the types of services they now provide. The types are cumulative in that a large center will have all the service items of the smaller centers plus a number of new ones.

  The analysis is very helpful for any one trying to see the shifts in dynamics over thirty years and wishing to extrapolate into the future for their area. People wishing to take a regional approach to clustering communities to stimulate growth will also find this study helpful.

Other Resources